Current proposals to cap international enrollments and restrict in-country holders of visitor and graduate visas from applying for student visas could threaten the vitality of the Australian higher education system, eroding regional relations, and leading to major financial and job losses. The proposed establishment of the Australian Tertiary Education Commission includes expanding the level of ministerial intervention, and threatens the long-established tradition of institutional autonomy, including in relation to international student strategy.

International students in Australian universities have long been a key part of the system. Mostly from Asia, and especially from the two Asian giants, namely China and India, they make a huge contribution to the country, including its university and research sector. Many complete their PhD in Australia, and go on to an academic post, in a system where 15 percent of university staff now stem from Asia, and international enrollments comprise over a quarter of total enrollments (with the proportion at some universities reaching almost half). The strong support of Asian knowledge diasporas has helped Australian universities build strong links to Asian innovation systems, boost research performance, and perform strongly in international rankings.

But the financial dimension has also been important: in a higher education system that has long been underfunded relative to its OECD peers, international student fees make a substantial contribution to university operations, sustaining critical research and other functions. Income from international students, currently totalling approximately USD 27 billion, is now the country’s fourth largest export industry. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the flow of international students, although differentially, with the research-intensive universities (known as the Group of Eight, or Go8) less affected. The end of the pandemic saw enrollments rise strongly again to 392,000, but in a significantly altered context.

Migration Debate

International student numbers have now become politicized. In a context where the rising cost of living has become a key political issue, with a federal election due within the next year, the strong postpandemic resurgence of migration has been seized upon as contributing to soaring housing prices, despite evidence that international higher education enrollments are only 10 percent above prepandemic levels, and that the large majority of international students return home after graduation, rather than stay in Australia. But the fact that international students comprise a substantial proportion (often around half) of overall migration numbers has allowed enrollment numbers to become politicized and political mileage to be derived from proposing simplistic solutions. Outcomes from the national Higher Education Accord, instituted by the federal minister of education in late 2022 with an emphasis on equity, are yet to be finalized but both major political parties have recently announced plans that would dramatically reduce international enrollments. Effectively, international students are being deemed expendable, in the fracas over the overall migration total.

University Resistance

Faced with a scenario of major decline in both enrollments and finances, with consequences for regional relations, universities pointed to the profound impact such proposals would have on the sector and the wider economy. Universities Australia, the peak body for the university sector, estimated projected financial losses to the sector to total USD 310 million, with projected job losses of at least 4,500. Other macroeconomic analysis found that international student spending contributed over half of the country’s total economic growth for the year 2023.

But as seen in issue 116 of International Higher Education, two recent national inquiries into irregularities in the visa system had exposed significant corruption in the sector, weakening support for the sector, with international students in particular caught in the crosshairs. The inquiries exposed pervasive practices by a minority of unscrupulous education agents arranging student visas for applicants who were in practice often far more interested in gaining access to the employment market than studying. Such applicants often proved vulnerable to exploitative working conditions, while corrupt agents pocketed substantial fees, as high as 40 percent of total course fees, from low quality providers. Clearly exposing regulatory failure, the scandal demanded that the visa system be tightened to prevent such abuses. Responses have included lifting visa refusal rates for international students considerably, especially for regions found to have been associated with corrupt visa practices, raising the financial requirements for student visas, reducing the time that students can remain in the country on temporary graduate visas, and raising English language proficiency standards.

But universities have argued that the current set of proposed reforms risks throwing the baby out with the bathwater and creating a mismatch between demand and supply. The CEO of the Go8 raised the threat of jettisoning the country’s most successful service sector export industry, eroding regional relations and the financial health of the higher education sector, as well as national skilled labor targets. The future of associated sectors such as student accommodation, travel, tourism and hospitality are also at risk. Proposals to lower the age limit allowing graduates to stay and work in Australia for a couple of years from 50 to 35 and banning onshore visitor visa holders and temporary graduate visa holders from applying for student visas have also raised concerns among international students. Further alarm has been expressed at both the blunt and intrusive nature of detailed proposals, which would institute both a cap on international enrollments at institutional level, and an international enrollment cap at the level of individual courses, as well as attempts to push international students to enroll in regional universities despite their clear preference for major urban institutions and environments.

Future Uncertain

The institution of a new statutory body, the Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC), has been proposed. The goal is to coordinate state and federal bodies, promote greater equity, and provide more coordinated advice regarding resource allocation and planning. The document proposes detailed ministerial intervention, including imposing caps on the proportion of international students at universities, as well as on international enrollments within popular areas such as business, and offering more places in areas such as teaching and nursing courses, in an effort to steer international students into these areas, rather than their chosen areas. A consultation paper clarifies that the minister could have powers to direct ATEC on specific matters and would set out annual expectations. Specific reference is made to ATEC’s brief to manage international student profiles for public universities. No mention is made of private providers, although there are more than 130 nonuniversity institutions, many of which actively recruit international students, and 56 percent of which have been found to be at high or moderate financial risk.

While consultation is ongoing, the proposals would, if implemented, considerably reduce university autonomy, including in relation to international student strategy. The prime emphasis on boosting national skill levels is at odds with plans to sharply cut international enrollments, while imposing further restrictions on temporary migrants, many of whom are international students, further reduces the attractiveness of Australian higher education. Relations with Australia’s neighbors could be at risk, too. Unless modified as a result of the current consultation process, the substantial erosion of soft power in the region, as well as financial and job losses to the sector, current proposals represent a major risk to the health of the sector, as well as eroding the longstanding tradition of university autonomy.

Anthony Welch is professor of education at the University of Sydney, Australia. E-mail: [email protected].